Thursday, March 13, 2008

Rachel Carson’s Ecological Critique

John Bellamy Foster and Brett Clark, Monthly Review, January, 2008,


Rachel Carson was born just over 100 years ago in 1907. Her most famous book Silent Spring, published in 1962, is often seen as marking the birth of the modern environmental movement. Although an immense amount has been written about Carson and her work, the fact that she was objectively a “woman of the left” has often been downplayed. Today the rapidly accelerating planetary ecological crisis, which she more than anyone else alerted us to, calls for an exploration of the full critical nature of her thought and its relation to the larger revolt within science with which she was associated.

Carson was first and foremost a naturalist and scientist. But she was propelled by her understanding of the destructive ecological forces at work in modern society into the role of radical critic. A recent biography attempts to capture this in its title: The Gentle Subversive. The principal causes of ecological degradation, Carson insisted, were “the gods of profit and production.” The chief obstacle to a sustainable relation to the environment lay in the fact that we live “in an era dominated by industry, in which the right to make a dollar at any cost is seldom challenged.”1

Silent Spring was directed against the chemical industry and its production of deadly pesticides. Carson combined the best scientific information then available with the skills of a great writer, and had an extraordinary effect in raising public concern over this issue. Yet, despite a number of victories, Carson and those who followed in her footsteps lost the war against synthetic pesticides, which she preferred to call “biocides.” Although she conceded that there were some situations where the application of such chemicals might be appropriate, she strongly believed “the elimination of the use of persistent toxic pesticides should be the goal”—as stated in the 1963 report on pesticides of the President’s Science Advisory Committee, which she regarded as a “vindication” of her views. Chemical control needed to be replaced wherever practicable by biological control (organic methods relying on natural enemies of the pests). She called this, in the concluding chapter of her book, “The Other Road.” Nevertheless, except for the banning of a few of the most deadly toxins such as DDT, the chemical industry triumphed, seeing an expansion of the production of this class of chemicals.2

This growing use of synthetic pesticides had nothing to do with the rational application of science. Although the chemical industry and their allies attempted to demonstrate that Carson made mistakes and exaggerated the dangers of pesticides in her arguments, her research has generally stood the test of time. Moreover, the questions she raised about the accumulation of these dangerous chemicals in living organisms are today even more relevant. She was especially concerned about the long-term, widespread effects of such biocides, which were being used in ever greater quantities, were persistent in the environment, and drifted uncontrollably, often concentrating in organisms in areas far removed from the point of introduction. She accurately predicted that dependence on synthetic pesticides would result in a pesticide treadmill as organisms evolved rapidly into more resistant forms requiring either higher doses or new biocides. “The chemical war,” she wrote, “is never won, and all life is caught in its violent crossfire.” By the late 1980s the production of pesticide active ingredients, much of it destined for U.S. farms, had increased to more than twice that of the early 1960s when Carson wrote Silent Spring. In 1999 over 100 million U.S. households applied some type of pesticide to their homes, lawns, and gardens. Many such chemicals on the market today have not been adequately tested. Meanwhile U.S. agribusiness has continued to produce and export banned pesticides to other countries. Some of the food imported to the United States from abroad is grown using these substances.

In the last decade and a half, the main focus of concern with regard to pesticides and related chemicals has shifted from cancer and the potential for genetic mutations—both of which remain among the biggest dangers of these chemicals—to the disruption of the endocrine system, affecting a myriad of bodily functions. Numerous pesticides mimic the female hormone estrogen, and research has suggested that they can reduce fertility, produce testicular and breast cancer, and malform the genital organs. Serious questions are being raised about the complex and still little understood effects of these chemicals on animal and human reproductive systems. Between the early 1970s and the early 1990s the incidence of testicular cancer in the United States increased by about 50 percent; while the last half-century or so has seen a drop worldwide in sperm counts by about 50 percent. Attention has also turned to other synthetic chemicals introduced into the environment in countless products. Over seventy thousand synthetic chemicals are used in commerce, while only 10–20 percent of these chemicals have been systematically tested. The failure adequately to test or limit the use of such chemicals more than forty-five years after the publication of Silent Spring makes Carson’s book of continuing importance for that reason alone.3

But Carson’s attack on synthetic pesticides is not her most notable achievement. Rather it is her wider, ecological critique challenging the whole nature of our society that is so important today. Carson is better understood if we recognize that she was not simply an isolated figure as is often supposed, but was part of a larger revolt among scientists and left thinkers in the 1950s and ’60s arising initially from concerns over the effects of nuclear radiation. Alarm about aboveground nuclear tests and the harmful effects of radiation, coupled with fears of nuclear war, spurred scientists, emanating primarily from the left, to raise searching questions about the destructiveness of our civilization. From this work, the modern ecology movement emerged.

Radiation and Ecology

Carson’s discussions of the effects of pesticides on living things drew heavily upon earlier discoveries by scientists regarding radiation. She repeatedly referred in Silent Spring and elsewhere to the breakthroughs in the 1920s of U.S. geneticist H. J. Muller, who first discovered that exposure of organisms to radiation could generate genetic mutations. As she explained to the National Council of Women of the United States in October 1962, two weeks after the publication of her book:

When I was a graduate student at Johns Hopkins University, studying under the great geneticist H. S. Jennings, the whole biological community was stirring with excitement over the recent discovery of another distinguished geneticist, Professor H. J. Muller, then at the University of Texas. Professor Muller had found that by exposing organisms to radiation he could produce those sudden changes in hereditary characteristics that biologists call mutations.

Before this it had been assumed that the germ cells were immutable—immune to influences in the environment. Muller’s discovery meant that it was possible for many, by accident or design, to change the course of heredity, although the nature of the changes could not be controlled.

It was much later that two Scottish investigators discovered that certain chemicals have a similar power to produce mutations and in other ways to imitate radiation. This was before the days of the modern synthetic pesticides, and the chemical used in these experiments was mustard gas. But over the years it has been learned that one after another of the chemicals used as insecticides or as weedkillers has power to produce mutations in the organisms tested or to change or damage the chromosome structure in some other way.4

As Carson observed in Silent Spring, “among the herbicides are some that are classified as ‘mutagens,’ or agents capable of modifying the genes, the materials of heredity. We are rightly appalled by the genetic effects of radiation; how then, can we be indifferent to the same effect in chemicals that we disseminate widely in our environment?”5

Muller, who was to be awarded the Nobel Prize in physiology or medicine in 1946 for his discoveries, was a complex figure who had a long history as a socialist and a critic of capitalism. He had been a faculty adviser to the Texas branch of the National Student League in the early 1930s and helped in the sponsoring and editing of its publication Spark, named after Lenin’s Iskra. Muller went to the Soviet Union in 1933 to work in the advanced genetic laboratories there, but came into conflict with the regime in the context of the Lysenko controversy and ran directly afoul of Stalin. He served in the international brigades in the Spanish Civil War and worked with the Canadian doctor Norman Bethune, later a hero of Mao’s China.

Although Muller was to become a very strong opponent of the Soviet Union under Stalin (due to the closing down of the genetic institute he had helped set up and the murder of some of his close friends and colleagues), he retained many of his critical beliefs, including faith in socialism. He held on to his earlier fundamental dialectical understanding that emphasized “the complicated processes (‘movements’ in the Marxian sense) whereby...objects are interrelated to one another and undergo their development”; such a dialectical approach he argued was crucial to the “realization of the complex realities of matter, especially of living matter, of its inter-connectedness.”6

The receipt of the Nobel Prize for work on the genetic effects of radiation shortly after the dropping of the bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki made Muller a public figure. He frequently warned of the long-term dangers of radioactive fallout from nuclear war (and also nuclear tests), helping to raise public concern in this area, and running into conflict with the Atomic Energy Commission, which saw him as an obstacle to the full expansion of nuclear armaments. Muller was later to be the most prestigious scientific defender of Carson’s Silent Spring. In a review for the New York Herald Tribune, coinciding with the publication of her book, he called it “a smashing indictment that faces up to the disastrous consequences, for both nature and man, of the chemical mass-warfare that is being waged today indiscriminately against noxious insects, weeds and fungi.” However, the real importance, he suggested, of Silent Spring lay in the profound understanding that it conveyed of the interconnections within nature and between nature and society: in “the enlightenment it brings the public regarding the high complexity and interrelatedness of the web of life in which we have our being.”7

Muller was one of the eleven prominent intellectuals who signed the Russell-Einstein letter leading to the Pugwash Conference in 1957 addressing the control of nuclear weapons. He was a signatory along with thousands of other scientists of the 1958 petition to the United Nations initiated by the Nobel Prize-winning chemist Linus Pauling (with the support of biologist Barry Commoner), calling for an end to nuclear weapons testing.

When the cloud of secrecy surrounding the fallout problem lifted in 1954, the scientific community was able to study the extent of environmental degradation and contamination caused by nuclear weapons tests. Such work required the expertise of biologists, geneticists, ecologists, pathologists, and meteorologists, who explored the effects of radiation on plants and animals, as well as the movement of radioactive materials through the atmosphere, ecosystems, and food chains. Nuclear testing had joined the world’s population in a common environmental fate, as radioactive fallout was distributed globally by wind, water, and living creatures. Human-made radioactive isotopes, such as strontium-90, iodine-31, cesium-137, and carbon-14, were introduced into the global environment, and from this point on, became part of the bodily composition of humans and all life. Different radioactive elements had distinct properties and posed unique threats to people and the environment. Plants and animals took up such materials, which were passed on through the food chain. Strontium-90 was built into children’s bones and teeth, cesium-137 concentrated in muscles, and iodine-131 was embedded in thyroid glands, each increasing the risk of cancer. Linus Pauling pointed to the myriad biological threats associated with carbon-14 lodged in all the tissues in the body.

In studying the effects of radioactive substances on food chains, the concepts of bioaccumulation and biological magnification were established—later to become intimately identified with Carson’s Silent Spring. Bioaccumulation refers to a process whereby a toxic substance is absorbed by the body at a rate faster than it is lost. For instance, strontium-90 is a radioactive isotope that is chemically similar to calcium and can accumulate in the bones, where it can cause genetic mutations and cancer. Biological magnification occurs when a substance increases in concentration along the food chain. An example of this occurred when radionuclides discharged into the Columbia River in trace amounts from the Hanford nuclear facility in Washington State were discovered to increase in order of magnitude as they were passed along in the food chain. A number of variables influence such biological magnification, such as the length of the food chain, the rate of bioaccumulation within an organism, the half-life of the nuclide (in the case of radioactive substances), and the concentration of the toxic substance in the immediate environment. Ecologist Eugene Odum noted that due to biological magnification it was possible to release an “innocuous amount of radioactivity and have her [nature] give it back to us in a lethal package!” Carson herself pointed to how biological magnification resulted in dangerously high burdens of strontium-90 and cesium-137 in the bodies of Alaskan Eskimos and Scandinavian Lapps at the terminal end of a food chain that included lichens and caribou.

In the 1961 edition of The Sea Around Us, Carson, who was deeply involved in protesting the dumping of radioactive wastes in the oceans, raised the pregnant question, “What happens then to the careful calculation of a ‘maximum permissible level’ [of radioactivity]? For the tiny organisms are eaten by larger ones and so on up the food chain to man. By such a process tuna over an area of a million square miles surrounding the Bikini bomb test developed a degree of radioactivity enormously higher than that of the sea water.”

The Castle Bravo hydrogen-bomb detonation at Bikini Atoll in March 1954, to which she referred here, was one of sixty-seven nuclear tests carried out by the United States in the Marshall Islands between 1946 and 1958, and the most notorious in its effects. The size of the blast (fifteen megatons, equivalent to a thousand times the bomb dropped on Hiroshima) was more than twice what was expected. Radioactive fallout rained down on inhabited areas of the Marshall Islands and on a Japanese fishing boat, the Lucky Dragon, some eighty nautical miles from Bikini (as well as contaminating ocean life over a vast region), creating an international controversy as the United States denied responsibility.8

A key figure linking the scientific critique of nuclear fallout and environmental contradictions in general to social movement struggles, and one with whom Carson closely identified, was the biologist and socialist Barry Commoner. In 1956 Commoner discussed with his friend and Marxist activist, Virginia Brodine, the possibility of organizing a campaign to get milk tested for strontium-90, modeled after the earlier pure milk campaign organized by St. Louis women. This led to the formation in April 1958 of the Greater St. Louis Citizens Committee for Nuclear Information (CNI)—after 1963 the Committee for Environmental Information—bringing together scientists (the “technical division” of the CNI) with activists. The CNI soon initiated its famous Baby Tooth Survey to examine babies’ teeth for strontium-90. Carson praised Commoner’s critique of the system’s failure to address problems such as air pollution before a new potentially dangerous technology was introduced. In her 1963 speech on “Our Polluted Environment” she underscored the importance of the CNI’s research on the effects of radioactive fallout.9

Carson and Ecosystem Ecology

Another very important influence on Carson’s environmental thinking was the rise of ecosystem ecology and new developments in evolutionary theory in her day. Ecology at this time was still a young field. The key concept of “ecosystem” had been introduced only a few decades prior in 1935 by the British ecologist Arthur Tansley. Tansley was a Fabian-style socialist who had studied under the leading Darwinian biologist of his day, E. Ray Lankester. Lankester was an adamant materialist, an early, sharp critic of ecological degradation, and a young friend of Karl Marx—present at Marx’s funeral.

In the late 1920s and ’30s, when Tansley was writing, the new field of ecology was dominated by teleological conceptions (emphasizing the purposiveness of nature, emanating from final causes) associated with the work of Frederick Clements in the United States and Jan Christian Smuts and his associates in South Africa. (Smuts, who served as South African prime minister, was one of the principal figures in establishing the preconditions for the apartheid system.) Incensed by the idealistic/racist interpretations of ecology propounded by Smuts and his followers, Tansley developed the concept of “ecosystem” as a materialist alternative to Smuts’s teleological “holism.” “Though the organisms may claim our primary interest,” he wrote, “we cannot separate them from their special environment, with which they form one physical system....These ecosystems, as we may call them, are of the most various kinds and sizes. They form one category of the multitudinous physical systems of the universe, which range from the universe as a whole down to the atom.” Tansley was deeply concerned with “the destructive human activities of the modern world.” “Ecology,” he argued, “must be applied to conditions brought about by human activity,” and for this purpose the ecosystem concept, which situated all life within the larger material environment and penetrated “beneath the forms of the ‘natural’ entities,” was the essential form of analysis.10

Another of the founders of modern ecosystem analysis was the British zoologist Charles Elton, a close associate of Tansley’s, whose work was to be fundamental to the development of Carson’s ecological critique. Elton was famous for his pioneering 1927 work Animal Ecology. However, it was his later book, The Ecology of Invasions by Animals and Plants (1958), in which he employed the new ecosystem concept, that was to inspire much of the wider argument of Silent Spring. In a powerful ecological condemnation of synthetic pesticides Elton declared that “this astonishing rain of death upon so much of the world’s surface” was largely unnecessary and threatened “the very delicately organized interlocking system of populations” in a given ecosystem. There were “other and more permanent methods of safeguarding the world’s organic wealth” that emphasized complexity and diversity rather than biological simplification. The unthinking use of “chemical warfare” on living things, he contended, following the U.S. ecologist and environmentalist Aldo Leopold, reflected the failure of a system based on economic values that had no place for the larger values of a biotic community. He stressed that these actions might one day be looked upon as we now do on “the excesses of colonial exploitation.” Carson quoted Elton’s statement on “the rain of death” in her April 1959 letter to the New York Times in which she opened her attack on pesticides; she was to quote it again in Silent Spring as the leitmotivof her chapter “Indiscriminately from the Skies.”11

Elton’s analysis had provided the foundation for the work of Carson’s friend and associate, Robert Rudd, a professor of zoology at the University of California at Davis. Carson first contacted Rudd in April 1958 to get help with her pesticide research, and to obtain some of his publications on the subject. He visited her with his children at her Maine cottage in July and the two struck up a strong friendship, and a close working relationship.

Rudd was a sophisticated left thinker with a deep sense of the ecology, sociology, and political economy of the pesticide issue. When he met Carson he had already started his own book on the subject funded by the Conservation Foundation. In 1959 he wrote two articles for The Nation:“The Irresponsible Poisoners” in May, and “Pesticides: The Real Peril” in July. “The Irresponsible Poisoners” argued that the use of deadly pesticides such as DDT was based on a misplaced emphasis on production over all other values. “Overproduction has settled on us like a plague....Chemical use to increase production is continually stressed; and few stop to inquire ‘Why?’” In “Pesticides: The Real Peril” he contended that the key reason that such chemicals were needed and also the leading effect of their use—in a kind of self-reinforcing vicious circle—was the extreme “simplification” imposed on the environment by industrial agriculture. Asked why there was an increasing reliance on such deadly chemicals, “an ecologist would answer....simplification of the ecosystem, [which] is the result of most current production practice in the United States.” The only effective way of dealing with the problem was therefore to change the production practice: to “cultivate ecological diversity” and reliance on biological control. “For the good of us all, chemical techniques must give way to ecological emphasis. The cultivation of ecosystem diversity will yield crop safety, sustained productivity, [and] reduction of chemical hazards.” The emerging system of global agribusiness needed to be questioned at the outset: “Our export of American agricultural ‘know-how’ may be doing the ‘favored’ countries an ultimate disservice.”

Carson drew extensively on Rudd’s research in two of the chapters of Silent Spring (“And No Birds Sang” and “Rivers of Death”). Rudd’s Nation articles also helped inspire Murray Bookchin’s first work on ecology, Our Synthetic Environment, published in 1962 (the same year as Silent Spring) under the pseudonym Lewis Herber.

Rudd’s ecosystem-based critique of the pesticide industry and agribusiness as a whole was so thoroughgoing that he found himself under attack by the vested interests and his own university position was jeopardized. Unlike Carson he was not an independent writer but a university professor at a land grant college dependent on publications and peer evaluation for promotion. His magnum opus Pesticides and a Living Landscape was completed before Carson’s Silent Spring. But the corporate publisher to which the Conservation Foundation gave the manuscript turned it down as a “polemic.” The manuscript was then offered to the University of Wisconsin Press where eighteen reviewers including the entire University entomology department went over it—with the result that it ended up with the record for the largest number of reviewers for that press and the decision on whether to publish it was a protracted one. Consequently, Pesticides and a Living Landscape was not published until 1964, the year of Carson’s death. The book was reviewed over 200 times, overwhelmingly favorably, but Rudd lost a promotion at the University of California at Davis and his career was threatened. He was dismissed without notice or cause in 1964 from his position at the University’s Agricultural Experiment Station.

There is no doubt that Pesticides and a Living Landscape was a brilliant work and a devastating critique of existing environmental practice. Rudd explored in depth the larger systematic issues related to the transformation of ecosystems associated with the application of pesticides that Carson, whose main object was to bring the deadly nature of pesticides themselves before the public, was unable fully to address. According to Rudd, “the general problem” could be succinctly stated:

Crop systems are necessarily ecologically simplified for economical production of marketable foods and fibers. The frequent consequence is an unbalanced ecosystem in which a few species of organisms increase beyond thresholds of numbers that we can tolerate. By definition these species then become pests....Production and [pest] protection are parts of the same cloth. They cannot be biologically separated....We can no longer afford to dismiss piecemeal the “separate” problems that arise from uncontrolled chemicals in living environments. There are no separate problems.

With respect to the risks to human beings from pesticides Rudd pointed out that “it would be embarrassing for our ‘experts’ to learn that significant effects do occur in the long term. One hundred and eighty million human guinea pigs [in the United States] would have paid a high price for their trust.”

For Carson, the ecosystem concept emerged as the basis of a radical challenge to the notion of the human domination of nature. The modern discovery of “the fact that man, like all other living creatures, is part of the vast ecosystems of the earth, subject to the forces of the environment,” she argued, was on a par with (and ultimately inseparable from) Darwin’s theory of evolution. The obvious corollary of such an evolutionary-ecological view is that “man is affected by the same environmental influences that control the lives of all the many thousands of other species to which he is related by evolutionary ties.”12

Crucial in forming Carson’s ecological critique were the new developments in evolutionary theory and in the theory of life’s origin. A materialist explanation of the origin of life had been introduced in 1924 when the Soviet biochemist A. I. Oparin developed the hypothesis that life had arisen prior to the presence of oxygen in the atmosphere (allowing the sun’s rays to operate more effectively to promote life on earth) from a body of water gradually enriched in organic molecules, later referred to as the “Oparin ocean” or “primordial soup.” Somehow life emerged when these molecules clustered together and then self-organized into a chemical system capable of self-replication. Similar ideas were developed separately in 1929 by the British biologist and Marxist J. B. S. Haldane, who was one of the major figures in the development of the neo-Darwinian synthesis linking Darwin’s evolutionary theory to the new field of genetics. This general approach to the origins of life was pushed forward experimentally in the early 1950s by the Chicago chemist Harold Urey and his student Stanley Miller, who succeeded in producing amino acids, the building blocks of proteins, by passing a spark through water under such primitive earth conditions replicated in a laboratory. Carson was clearly affected by this new influential scientific theory of the origin of life and the unified evolutionary-ecological perspective it generated. Her book The Sea Around Us commenced with the sea as the setting “for the creation of life from non-life.”

One of the fundamental conceptions of this theory of the origin of life, going back to Oparin and Haldane (and derived from V. I. Vernadsky’s conception of the biosphere), was that life had itself altered the atmosphere by generating oxygen and the ozone layer, making such spontaneous creation of new life from non-life no longer possible. Carson in her talk on “The Pollution of Our Environment” placed enormous importance on this point and its significance for an ecological critique, arguing that,

From all of this we may generalize that, since the beginning of biological time, there has been the closest possible interdependence between the physical environment and the life it sustains. The conditions on the young earth produced life; life then at once modified the conditions of the earth, so that this single extraordinary act of spontaneous generation could not be repeated. In one form or another, action and interaction between life and its surroundings has been going on ever since.

The historic fact has, I think, more than academic significance. Once we accept it we see why we cannot with impunity make repeated assaults upon the environment as we do now. The serious student of earth history knows that neither life nor the physical world that supports it exists in little isolated compartments. On the contrary, he recognizes that extraordinary unity between organisms and the environment. For this reason he knows that harmful substances released into the environment return in time to create problems for mankind....The branch of science that deals with these interrelations is Ecology....We cannot think of the living organism alone; nor can we think of the physical environment as a separate entity. The two exist together, each acting on the other to form an ecological complex or an ecosystem.13

Such complex, evolving ecosystems were highly dynamic entities. Consequently, the changes they were undergoing were frequently unforeseen until it was too late.

Throughout her work Carson stressed the evolutionary character and interconnectedness of the natural world. It was this that gave her naturalistic writings their breathtaking quality. In an insightful analysis of Carson’s sea trilogy—Under the Sea Wind (1941), The Sea Around Us (1951), and The Edge of the Sea (1955)—together with Silent Spring, Mary McCay has traced this quality in Carson’s writing to her fundamental concept, introduced early on in her work, of “material immortality.” As Carson wrote in 1937 in her article “Undersea,” the various forms of life are “redissolved into their component substance,” as a result of “the inexorable laws of the sea.” Consequently, “individual elements are lost to view, only to reappear again and again in different incarnations in a kind of material immortality.” As a scientist, Carson approached the natural world from a materialist standpoint, rejecting all non-naturalistic explanations. Once when her mother said to her that God had created the world, she replied, “Yes and General Motors created my Oldsmobile. But how is the question.” The evolution of a complex web of life was everything.14

Ecology as a Radical Force

Carson’s intense study of ecosystem ecology in the context of her work on Silent Spring heightened this materialist understanding and turned it into a radical force. At the time of her death she had a book contract to undertake a philosophical examination of ecology and she was collecting material for a scientific study of evolution. The two subjects were obviously connected in her mind and were undoubtedly to form the basis of a thoroughgoing critique of the present human relation to the earth.15

This put her in direct conflict with the powers that be. For the dominant economic interests, as her editor and biographer Paul Brooks observed, “the really scary thing” was that Carson “was questioning the whole attitude of industrial society toward the natural world. This was heresy and this had to be suppressed.” Carson herself was well aware that her radical ecological perspective was placing her at odds with a system geared to expansion of private production at all costs. In the process of writing Silent Spring she studied John Kenneth Galbraith’s Affluent Society, which had raised the question of private wealth and public squalor, i.e., the external diseconomies of the market system, whereby social and environmental costs were imposed on society and nature.16

In responding to the attacks on Silent Spring,Carson complained of the “enormous stream of propaganda” blocking rational science and ecological values. She railed against the tax subsidies given for corporate lobbyists, and attacked the large private grants to universities through which corporations tried to purchase a “scientific front” for their operations. Behind all of this lay the question she continually raised: “What happens...when the public interest is pitted against large commercial interests?”

Carson had no doubt that there was an irreconcilable conflict between economic and environmental interests within contemporary society. Thus she complained of the promotion of extreme “intensivism” in production in the search for greater profits, particularly as it related to the maltreatment of animals. The economic system, she emphasized in line with Rudd, was geared toward “overproduction” at the expense of the environment. In our society, dominated by material acquisition, life was destroyed because business was “blinded by the dollar sign.” Indeed, “the modern world,” she declared, “worships the gods of speed and quantity, and of the quick and easy profit, and out of this idolatry monstrous evils have arisen.” She added that “the struggle against the massed might of industry is too big for one or two individuals...to handle”—a view that clearly called for the formation of an environmental movement to counter the power of industry.17

What appeared to anger the chemical industry more than anything else about Rachel Carson’s book was that she chose to begin Silent Spring with a literary device: “A Fable for Tomorrow”; the tale of “a town...where all life seemed in harmony with its surroundings,” and which unthinkingly, almost unbeknownst to itself, introduced chemicals of destruction into its midst. For Carson “a grim specter” was haunting modern industrial, acquisitive society, threatening to silence the spring. Her fable was clearly “for tomorrow” in two senses: it represented both an unprecedented threat to all life, and the possibility of overcoming it. The worst society could do would be to stand still in the face of such a threat. Giving evidence of her broad progressivism, she wrote elsewhere: “the changes and the evolution of new ways of life are natural and on the whole desirable.”18

Today many of the same problems that Carson pointed out persist, often in more potent forms. This has to be the case for a system that by its very nature must grow (at a rate exceeding population growth) in order to stay out of severe crises, and in which producing more and more profit is the motive force propelling the economy. An example of how economic priorities override ecological approaches can be seen in the case of strawberry growers in California, who can’t make as much money if they rotate crops and take land out of strawberries. Thus, they “need” to use a biocide, methyl bromide (which also acts to deplete the protective atmospheric ozone layer at fifty times the level of CFCs), in order to kill soil-borne pests that would be well taken care of by a more ecological approach to growing strawberries. To give an idea of how significant the problem of pesticide use continues to be, in 2006 some 64 percent of the fresh produce and 59 percent of the processed fruits and vegetables tested by the U.S. Department of Agriculture contained detectable levels of pesticide residues.19

Likewise, producers of agricultural animals using factory farms in which animals are crowded together under inhumane conditions “must,” we are told, routinely use antibiotics (a form of pesticide, of course) to try to keep the animals growing reasonably fast. This leads not only to antibiotic residue in meat but also to the development of antibiotic-resistant microbes. Raising animals in a less dense and more humane system, only using antibiotics when animals actually get sick, leads to higher production costs and hence is rejected by market principles—what Carson called “the gods of profits and production.” Although there is a developing public interest in organically raised agricultural products and “humanely” raised animals these are still niche markets.

The U.S. government has been particularly sympathetic to the desires of business to maintain as free a hand as possible in continuing to introduce new chemicals into the environment. It has therefore opposed mandating the removal of potential hazards. As pointed out in a recent New York Times article: “The United States has held on to its original 30-year-old chemical regulatory systems, which make it difficult for agencies to ban chemicals or require industry testing. While the government has worked with the industry on a voluntary basis to study as many as 2,000 chemicals and phase out certain ones, it has required the study of only 200 chemicals and restricted the use of only 5 since 1976.”20

Beyond these persistent problems associated with the introduction of synthetic chemicals into our environment, there remains the wider set of ecological perils that Carson addressed. It was this larger ecological critique that challenged the whole nature of the modern production system that represented her most enduring contribution. Far from being the quiet, demure, establishment figure that we often hear of today, Carson in reality represented a defiant, radical voice. As a scientist and a writer she went beyond the bounds of what is allowed in “polite circles” and thus alerted and energized the public. When attacked by industry, she stood her ground, and went to the root of the issue. She urged us, and particularly those responsible for raising and educating children, to reject “the sterile preoccupation with things that are artificial, the alienation from the sources of our strength.”21

Carson spent most of her adult life discovering and lovingly describing the “sea around us.” But as her ecological critique developed, perceiving the destructiveness of the social encounter with the environment, she sought not merely to explain the world, but to change it.

Notes
1. Rachel Carson, Lost Woods (Boston: Beacon Press, 1998), 210, Silent Spring (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1994), 13; Mark Hamilton Lytle, The Gentle Subversive (New York: Oxford University Press, 2007).
2. Lytle, The Gentle Subversive, 184; Carson, Silent Spring, 277–97; Appendix IV, “Recommendations of the President’s Scientific Advisory Committee on the Use of Pesticides,” in Robert L. Rudd, Pesticides and the Living Landscape (Madison: University of Wisconsin Press, 1964), 297.
3. Data on pesticide active ingredients referred to here refers simply to “conventional pesticides” (herbicides and insecticides) and excludes wood preservatives (fungicides) and other ingredients on the EPA’s expanded list.Carson, Silent Spring, 8; Shirley A. Briggs, “Thirty-Five Years with Silent Spring,” Organization & Environment, 10:1 (March 1997), 73–84; Al Gore, “Introduction,” in Carson, Silent Spring, xv–xxvi; Carson, Lost Woods, 218, 244; Dan Fagin and Marianne Lavelle, Toxic Deception (Monroe, Maine: Common Courage Press, 1999); Theo Colborn, et. al., Our Stolen Future (New York; Dutton, 1996); “Sperm in the News,” Rachel’s Environment and Health Weekly, January 18, 1996; Audubon, “Reduce All Pesticides But Eliminate Those Used on the Lawn,” http://www.audubon.org/bird/at_home/ReducePesticideUse.html.
4. Carson quoted in Paul Brooks, The House of Life (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1989), 301–02; Carson, Silent Spring, 211, Carson, Lost Woods, 106–09.
5. Carson, Silent Spring, 36–37. On the mutagenic effects of organochlorines, including some pesticides, see Joe Thornton, Pandora’s Poison (Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press, 2000), 84–85.
6. Loren R. Graham, Science and Philosophy in the Soviet Union (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1972), 451–53; H. J. Muller, “Lenin’s Doctrines in Relation to Genetics” (1934) in Graham, Science and Philosophy, 463; Elof Axel Carlson, Genes, Radiation, and Society (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1981). Muller was a controversial figure in another respect, because of his lifelong advocacy of “progressive eugenics.” His overall humanistic commitments, however, were evident. In 1963 he received the “humanist of the year award” from the American Humanist Association.
7. H. J. Muller, “Silent Spring” (review), New York Herald Tribune, September 23, 1962.
8. Barry Commoner, Science and Survival (New York: Viking, 1966); Joel B. Hagen, An Entangled Bank (New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers University Press, 1992), 100–07, 115–18; Richard Rhodes, Dark Sun (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1995), 541–42; Tokue Shibata, “The H-Bomb Terror in Japan,” Monthly Review 4, no. 2 (June 1954): 72–76; Eugene P. Odum, Fundamentals of EcologyLost Woods, 108–09, 237–38; “U.S. Nuclear Testing Program in the Marshall Islands,” http://www.nuclearclaimstribunal.com; Helen Caldicott, Nuclear Power is Not the Answer (New York: New Press, 2006), 64, 73.
9. Virginia Brodine, Green Shoots and Red Roots (New York: International Publishers, 2007), 3–10; Carson, Lost Woods, 232, 240. Briggs was editor of the CNI/CEI’s publication Nuclear Information (later Science and Citizen) from 1962 to 1969.
10. A. G. Tansley, “The Use and Abuse of Vegetational Concepts and Terms,” Ecology 16, no. 3 (July 1935): 299, 303–04. In developing his ecosystem concept Tansley was influenced by the dialectical systems analysis presented by the British Marxist mathematician Hyman Levy in The Universe of Science (New York: The Century Co., 1933).
11. Charles Elton, The Ecology of Invasions by Animals and Plants (London: Methuen and Co., 1958), 137–42; Carson, Lost Woods, 190; Silent Spring, 155.
12. Robert L. Rudd, “The Irresponsible Poisoners,” The Nation (May 30, 1959), 496–97, “Pesticides: The Real Peril,” The Nation (November 28, 1959), 399–401, Pesticides and the Living Landscape, 154–55, 284–91; Frank Graham Jr., Since Silent Spring (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1970), 167–69; Linda Lear, Rachel Carson (New York: Henry Holt, 1997), 331–32; Murray Bookchin (under the pseudonym of Lewis Herber), Our Synthetic Environment (New York: Knopf, 1962), 55–61; Carson, Lost Woods,, 244–45.
13. Robert M. Hazen, Genesis (Washington D.C.: John Henry Press, 2005), 85–90; J. D. Bernal, The Origin of Life (New York: World Publishing Co., 1967); Rachel Carson, The Sea Around Us (New York: Oxford University Press, 1989), 7; Carson, Lost Woods, 230–31.
14. Mary McCay, Rachel Carson (New York: Twayne Publishers, 1993), 23–24, 42–43, 109.
15. Carson, Lost Woods, xi.
16. Brooks quoted in Shirley A. Briggs, “Rachel Carson,” in Gino J. Marco, et. al., ed., Silent Spring Revisited (Washington, D.C.: American Chemical Society, 1987), 6; Lear, Rachel Carson, 334.
17. Carson, Lost Woods, 162, 194–95, 218, 220–21, Carson, Silent Spring, 9; Carson quote in Lytle, 178–79.
18. Carson, Silent Spring, 1–3; Lost Woods, 89.
19. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Pesticide Data Program, Annual Summary, Calendar Year 2006 (December 2007), x, http://www.ams.usda.gov.
20. “Meythyl Bromide Still Finds its Way into U.S. Fields,” San Francisco Chronicle, November 24, 2007; “Everyday Items, Complex Chemistry,” New York Times, December 22, 2007.
21. Rachel Carson, The Sense of Wonder (New York: Harper and Row, 1965), 43.
(Philadelphia: Saunders, 1959), 467; Carson,


Silent Spring’s connotations...reach afar beyond insect and bird life; far beyond the health, reproductive capacity, and life of individual human beings, and certainly far beyond the pocket nerve of the chemical industry....Viewed in its broadest aspects, and considered in the light of its probable consequences, the theme of Silent Spring has a quality of universality that was merely hinted at in parallel books on war, slavery, and insanitary conditions of meat processing [such as War and Peace, Uncle Tom’s Cabin, and The Jungle]. It is a book that should bring a reasoning modern man face to face with the overwhelming disaster toward which he is moving with the speed of a super-jet....

Modern man, using the immense potential of the Power Age, has won his war against animals, enslaved (domesticated) them, and used them for food, power, or for sport. He is winning his war against vegetation by ploughing up the grasslands, butchering the forests, paving the earth, and spraying poisons on trespassing plant life (weeds). Man is engaged in a savage chemical war against those insects and other forms of life which threaten his health or interfere with his projects or enterprises. He is carrying on a cold-hot war against those who differ with his ideals and theories or who question his practices. In a word, present-generation western civilization is repeating the cycle followed by previous civilizations: beginning with emphasis on production and consumption, continuing through the 19th century era of accumulating surpluses and extravagant waste, and early in the present century passing into the third phase of the cycle, suicidal destructivity....

The alternative? Learning to live and let live; or, better still, to live and help live.
—Scott Nearing, “Lament for Poisoned Songbirds/Coexistence or
Extermination,” Monthly Review, November 1962.

Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Carbon Output Must Near Zero To Avert Danger, New Studies Say

Juliet Eilperin, Washington Post, March 10

The task of cutting greenhouse gas emissions enough to avert a dangerous rise in global temperatures may be far more difficult than previous research suggested, say scientists who have just published studies indicating that it would require the world to cease carbon emissions altogether within a matter of decades.

Their findings, published in separate journals over the past few weeks, suggest that both industrialized and developing nations must wean themselves off fossil fuels by as early as mid-century in order to prevent warming that could change precipitation patterns and dry up sources of water worldwide.

Using advanced computer models to factor in deep-sea warming and other aspects of the carbon cycle that naturally creates and removes carbon dioxide (CO2), the scientists, from countries including the United States, Canada and Germany, are delivering a simple message: The world must bring carbon emissions down to near zero to keep temperatures from rising further.

"The question is, what if we don't want the Earth to warm anymore?" asked Carnegie Institution senior scientist Ken Caldeira, co-author of a paper published last week in the journal Geophysical Research Letters. "The answer implies a much more radical change to our energy system than people are thinking about."

Although many nations have been pledging steps to curb emissions for nearly a decade, the world's output of carbon from human activities totals about 10 billion tons a year and has been steadily rising.

For now, at least, a goal of zero emissions appears well beyond the reach of politicians here and abroad. U.S. leaders are just beginning to grapple with setting any mandatory limit on greenhouse gases. The Senate is poised to vote in June on legislation that would reduce U.S. emissions by 70 percent by 2050; the two Democratic senators running for president, Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) and Barack Obama (Ill.), back an 80 percent cut. The Republican presidential nominee, Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), supports a 60 percent reduction by mid-century.

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.), who is shepherding climate legislation through the Senate as chairman of the Environment and Public Works Committee, said the new findings "make it clear we must act now to address global warming."

"It won't be easy, given the makeup of the Senate, but the science is compelling," she said. "It is hard for me to see how my colleagues can duck this issue and live with themselves."

James L. Connaughton, who chairs the White House Council on Environmental Quality, offered a more guarded reaction, saying the idea that "ultimately you need to get to net-zero emissions" is "something we've heard before." When it comes to tackling such a daunting environmental and technological problem, he added: "We've done this kind of thing before. We will do it again. It will just take a sufficient amount of time."

Until now, scientists and policymakers have generally described the problem in terms of halting the buildup of carbon in the atmosphere. The United Nations' Framework Convention on Climate Change framed the question that way two decades ago, and many experts talk of limiting CO2concentrations to 450 parts per million (ppm).

But Caldeira and Oregon State University professor Andreas Schmittner now argue that it makes more sense to focus on a temperature threshold as a better marker of when the planet will experience severe climate disruptions. The Earth has already warmed by 0.76 degrees Celsius (nearly 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels. Most scientists warn that a temperature rise of 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) could have serious consequences.

Schmittner, lead author of a Feb. 14 article in the journal Global Biogeochemical Cycles, said his modeling indicates that if global emissions continue on a "business as usual" path for the rest of the century, the Earth will warm by 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100. If emissions do not drop to zero until 2300, he calculated, the temperature rise at that point would be more than 15 degrees Fahrenheit.

"This is tremendous," Schmittner said. "I was struck by the fact that the warming continues much longer even after emissions have declined. . . . Our actions right now will have consequences for many, many generations. Not just for a hundred years, but thousands of years."

While natural cycles remove roughly half of human-emitted carbon dioxide from the atmosphere within a hundred years, a significant portion persists for thousands of years. Some of this carbon triggers deep-sea warming, which keeps raising the global average temperature even after emissions halt.

Researchers have predicted for a long time that warming will persist even after the world's carbon emissions start to fall and that countries will have to dramatically curb their carbon output in order to avert severe climate change. Last year's report of the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said industrialized nations would have to cut emissions 80 to 95 percent by 2050 to limit CO2concentrations to the 450 ppm goal, and the world as a whole would have to reduce emissions by 50 to 80 percent.

European Union Environment Commissioner Stavros Dimas, in Washington last week for meetings with administration officials, said he and his colleagues are operating on the assumption that developed nations must cut emissions 60 to 80 percent by mid-century, with an overall global reduction of 50 percent. "If that is not enough, common sense is that we would not let the planet be destroyed," he said.

The two new studies outline the challenge in greater detail, and on a longer time scale, than many earlier studies. Schmittner's study, for example, projects how the Earth will warm for the next 2,000 years.

But some climate researchers who back major greenhouse gas reductions said it is unrealistic to expect policymakers to think in terms of such vast time scales."People aren't reducing emissions at all, let alone debating whether 88 percent or 99 percent is sufficient," said Gavin A. Schmidt, of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. "It's like you're starting off on a road trip from New York to California, and before you even start, you're arguing about where you're going to park at the end."

Brian O'Neill of the National Center for Atmospheric Research emphasized that some uncertainties surround the strength of the natural carbon cycle and the dynamics of ocean warming, which in turn would affect the accuracy of Caldeira's modeling. "Neither of these are known precisely," he said.

Although computer models used by scientists to project changes in the climate have become increasingly powerful, scientists acknowledge that no model is a perfect reflection of the complex dynamics involved and how they will evolve with time.

Still, O'Neill said the modeling "helps clarify thinking about long-term policy goals. If we want to reduce warming to a certain level, there's a fixed amount of carbon we can put into the atmosphere. After that, we can't emit any more, at all."

Caldeira and his colleague, H. Damon Matthews, a geography professor at Concordia University in Montreal, emphasized this point in their paper, concluding that "each unit of CO2 emissions must be viewed as leading to quantifiable and essentially permanent climate change on centennial timescales.

"Steve Gardiner, a philosophy professor at the University of Washington who studies climate change, said the studies highlight that the argument over global warming "is a classic inter-generational debate, where the short-term benefits of emitting carbon accrue mainly to us and where the dangers of them are largely put off until future generations."

When it comes to deciding how drastically to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, O'Neill said, "in the end, this is a value judgment, it's not a scientific question." The idea of shifting to a carbon-free society, he added, "appears to be technically feasible. The question is whether it's politically feasible or economically feasible."

Saturday, March 01, 2008

Al Gore, James Hansen, and Civil Disobedience

Gordon Clark, September 1, 2007, ZNET

In his recent global warming op-ed in the New York Times ("The Big Melt," August 16, 2007) , Nicholas Kristof reported on a conversation with Al Gore in which the former Vice-President said: "I can't understand why there aren't rings of young people blocking bulldozers, and preventing them from constructing coal-fired power plants." His comment was a reaction to the ever- quickening pace of polar ice meltoff, with all its catastrophic implications, and the huge role played by coal-fired power plants in advancing our demise through global warming.

Gore's comment was also strikingly similar to a recent quote from Dr. James Hansen, the top climate scientist at NASA: "It seems to me that young people, especially, should be doing whatever is necessary to block construction of dirty (no CCS) coal-fired power plants."

What does it mean when one of the top scientific leaders ringing the alarm on global warming, along with a top political leader, both suggest, in so many words, nonviolent direct action (or civil disobedience) to confront the challenge of climate change?

Clearly both men must realize the importance of nonviolent resistance in social change efforts of this magnitude and agree, if only subconsciously, with historian Howard Zinn's observation that "Protest beyond the law is not a departure from democracy. It is absolutely essential to it." (Dr. Hansen, for his part, goes on to quote the Declaration of Independence and the U.S. Constitution at some length.)

Gore and Hansen must both know that nonviolent direct action has been a significant catalyst in nearly every major social change movement in U.S. (and world) history, starting in this country with the Boston Tea Party and extending through the anti-slavery, woman's suffrage, labor rights, civil rights, environmental and anti-war movements. Nonviolent direct action can dramatize an injustice or danger to the general public as few other actions can. It both provokes other people to act and speak - often people who had previously been silent - and it opens up political space for them to do so. Nonviolent actions are acts of courage that inspire others to follow. They are acts of leadership.

The twin quotes also reflect the extraordinary urgency of our predicament. As Jay Gulledge, senior scientist at the Pew Center on Global Climate Change, notes in Kristof's column, "Over and over again, we're finding that models correctly predict the patterns of change but understate their magnitude."

Or their speed. According to the May 2007 report from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, polar ice is melting significantly faster than computer models of climate calculate, and the Arctic Sea could be free of summer ice by 2020 - 30 years earlier than the recent prediction by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Clearly, we are running out of time.

What is strikingly curious about the quotes, however, is the suggestion by both men that "young people" need to be doing this. Clearly young people will have to suffer the disastrous effects of global warming longer than older people. But that does not make the responsibility any less on the older heads among us to take any and all actions necessary to stop the planet-destroying calculus of carbon emissions. Indeed, one would think that those who are older are more culpable for the current condition of our planet than those who are younger, and therefore more responsible for taking dramatic action to confront the crisis.

I would also imagine that young people (and I can only imagine, being middle-aged myself) are, while grateful for recognition of their vital role in the movement, probably less than enthusiastic to have this particular imperative dumped on them and them alone.

Personally, I pray for and will gladly follow leadership from any quarter and age group. But I expect it from those in the climate change movement who are older, more experienced, and more influential. Especially when it comes to nonviolent resistance. I know, for instance, that when I or younger activists organize nonviolent direct actions, a relative few people will hear and join us, and we are lucky to get more than a few stories outside the independent media. If Al Gore were to actually call for and lead such an action it is likely that thousands would join him, and the story would be splashed across the mainstream media for all of America to see.

None of this should be read as criticism of Mr. Gore's incredible efforts on global warming. He has arguably been the single most effective (and active) person on the planet in raising the clarion call. But perhaps now his leadership is requiring even more of him. After all, if you truly recognize the extreme emergency and catastrophic danger inherent in global warming, how long can one wait before taking the most dramatic, effective and necessary actions in response - as opposed to wondering out loud why those younger and less influential than yourself aren't doing so?

Of course, this is a question that everyone who understands the reality of global warming needs to be asking themselves right now. How long can any of us wait? As with all revolutionary changes, forging a new, sustainable society will require us to take risks, make sacrifices, and endure suffering - all hallmarks of nonviolence. And nonviolent blockades of coal-fired power plants, Mr. Gore and Dr. Hansen are correct in noting, would be an excellent place to start.

# # #

Gordon Clark is the convener of the National Campaign for Nonviolent Resistance, www.iraqpledge.org

James Hansen - No more conventional coal and carbon stabilisation below 350ppm

[Firstly apologies for neglecting this website in recent weeks. It has been a busy time of year politically in Australia and I haven't had 5 minutes to post anything. Hopefully i will have more time to update this website from now. For now im adding this very important interview by Beyond Zero Emissions with James Hansen and a piece written in September last year from Znet. In the Znet article Hansen stated that "it seems to me that young people, especially, should be doing whatever is necessary to block construction of dirty (no CCS) coal-fired power plants."]

Beyond Zero Emissions, February 22

Beyond Zero Radio show spoke to James Hansen the world's leading climate scientist about his call for CO2 emissions stabilisation at 300-350ppm, well below todays 385ppm.

Interview with James Hansen - Nasa Goddard Institute of Space Studies

Scott Bilby: In the studio with me are Beyond Zero team members Miwa, Matthew and special guest Philip Sutton from the Greenleap Strategic Institute. This morning on Beyond Zero we'll be interviewing James Hansen often described by many as the world's leading climate scientist. He is the director of the Goddard Institute of Space Studies at NASA and adjunct professor at earth and environmental sciences at Columbia University. Wieslaw Maslowski has recently said that Arctic ice could be
free in summer by 2013. Dr Hansen, are you there?

James Hansen: Yes I am. I hope you can hear me.

SB: We certainly can hear you - As Wieslaw Maslowski has said the Arctic could be free of ice in summer by 2013. You've said that we need to keep to levels well below 350ppm. What do humans have to do to get Arctic sea ice? to basically get it back again?

James Hansen: Well, we will have to restore the point of energy balance because as it stands now we will lose the arctic sea ice without any more greenhouse gases, because there is additional warming that's in the pipeline, because the planet is out of energy balance, just because of the inertia of the system.

That means we would have to reduce the amount of CO2 at least to the 350ppm level, and we are already at 385. So, we've actually got to go backwards and it's really too bad that we didn't realise this earlier. We probably should have, based on the earth's history.

We can see that 385ppm is really going to produce a significantly different planet. And also just looking at what's now happening, not only in the Arctic, and the fact that the ice sheets are not stable with the current CO2 amount, and the fact that the sub-tropical regions have expanded noticeably by a few hundred kilometres, that's enough to effect the southwest US, the Mediterranean, and Australia I should point out.

So there's a lot of things, also coral reefs are another example. If we want to reduce the stress on coral reefs, we have to both reduce CO2 and the warming of the ocean temperatures. So there are a number of things like that which make it clear that we've already passed the target level that we should be aiming for.

Philip Sutton: Jim, how would you actually make the earth cool or go backwards? How would you actually restore that Arctic ice?

James Hansen: Yes, yes, it's still possible. If we get on the stick very promptly, it's still practical to do that in ways that are quite natural. The most important thing is to have a moratorium on new coal fired power plants that don't capture CO2 and then to phase out the dirty coal use over the next 2-3 decades. If we do that, you know that
the system does still take up CO2, the ocean and the soils and things, so that other things being equal, CO2 would only go up to a bit more than 400 if we phase out coal use. But then we have got to take at least 50ppm out of the atmosphere, and that is possible with improved agricultural and forestry practices, things that we have not being paying much attention to.

In fact the practices have been quite the opposite. They've actually not encouraged the uptake of CO2 by the soils and by the biosphere.

Matthew Wright: And we have touched on that with Professor Johannes Lehmann from Cornell University, and in terms of the Australian political environment we've just had an interim report by Professor Ross Garnaut - he's doing sort of a mini Stern Report and he's just said basically that we need to stabilise global emissions within two years,
and I think we'd agree with him there. But he's saying in a global carbon equity sense that Australia needs to go 90% by 2050, to the shock of media and commentators.

James Hansen: One thing that is important to point out, these goals for 2050 are not a sufficient way to look at it. We actually have to realise that the carbon dioxide is put in the atmosphere from burning fossil fuels, a good fraction of that will stay in the air for a very long time, about a fifth of this stays in there for about a thousand years.
And we need to recognise the size of the reservoirs of oil, gas and coal; with coal being by far the largest of these and also it's the one which is potentially amenable to not putting the CO2 into the air. It's very difficult to see how we can prevent the oil from being used and the carbon getting in to the atmosphere because it comes from vehicles, but in the case of coal if we're going to use that, we could restrict it to power-plants and we should say it can only be used there if you capture the CO2. That becomes a practical way to look at this, and I think it's a better way than saying lets reduce it 80% or 90% or 60% or any particular number because we really can't let 40% or 20% of the coal to continue to be used; that's the one source that we really need to cut off.

Matthew Wright: Yes and if in somewhere like Victoria, which uses lignite, brown coal, if there was the gas resource available, which according to BHP Petroleum there is, to actually switch away form coal in 3 years and cut our emissions by half; our entire absolute emissions in Victoria by half. Would that be something you would encourage our government to pursue?

James Hansen: Yes absolutely, that would be consistent with the strategy of terminating the coal source as soon as possible.

Matthew Wright: Also Professor Garnaut, it seems like the government sort of started to distance themselves from him even though they commissioned him to run the report, and they're remaining committed to their 60% target. I guess a get out of gaol guard for them is to claim their 60% target by 2050 but adopt a very strong 40% by 2020 or something like that within that, if they're politically manoeuvring. It seems that targets are they way that they are going in terms of setting the cap in their 'cap and trade'. What do you think would be the right approach? Obviously capping global growth in emissions within two years is a very good approach, but beyond that what sort of approach would Australia require?

James Hansen: Well, I think that the target in terms of percent when you're talking about a date which is quite a distance in the future is just not very helpful. It's a way for politicians to get out of doing something now, because they put off the target to a date when they'll be out of office. So I have no objection to that except that if it allows
them to get away from taking actions that need to be done now.

Philip Sutton: We have a bit of a sense that in fact the government in Australia is beginning to gear itself up to take climate change quite seriously, but they're obviously struggling to come to terms with the seriousness of the real position on the ground. Do you have a sense of how long it would take to get the arctic ice back, presumably we'll lose it in a couple of years time; completely during summer. But just interested to know how long you think it would take to actually restore it if we could manage to trigger a cooling.

James Hansen: The Arctic sea ice is a very different problem from the ice sheet, in the sense that the Arctic sea ice is a reversible phenomenon on time scales that we can think about, unlike the ice sheets. If we let those reach a point of no return so they start to collapse then we're really in trouble, because it takes many thousands
of years to build an ice sheet.

But the Arctic sea ice, that would require that we get the planet energy balance back in balance, and that is out of balance now by something between half a watt and one watt, so it's a fairly steep order to do that. It is the order of this 50ppm CO2 that we would need to get.

It can be done with a combination of methane, black soot and other pollutants [these] can contribute to the reduction in the forcing. So it's something that could be done in a time scale of a few decades. Now it's not certain that the Arctic summer sea ice is going to be gone in a few years. Some people say it could be as soon as 5-10 years and others think it could be a few decades. But to get it back is a time scale of decades I think, that's minimum.

Philip Sutton: Do you have any estimates of how much warming would actually be caused by the albedo flip itself. We've sort of seen some rough estimates of about a 1/3 of a degree. I was just wondering if that was anything in the ball park of what you've been seeing or calculating through your models.

James Hansen: If you want to look at it that way, that's the right ball park. It's a positive feedback, an amplifying feedback, which makes the change there go more rapidly, and to a certain extent it will contribute to warming at other latitudes. But I think it is the right order of magnitude. I haven't actually looked at it and done a calculation in
that sense, but that's the right order of magnitude.

Philip Sutton: Right.

Matthew Wright: Matthew here again and just to let everyone know, that was Philip Sutton who has been assisting me with questions, from the Greenleap Strategic Institute, co-author of Climate Code Red which relies on a lot of material from Dr. James Hansen. I noted that you had sent a draft letter the um? the U.K.?

Scott Bilby: Gordon Brown.

Matthew Wright: Gordon Brown, the UK Prime Minister requesting that they don't build any new coal fired power plants without carbon capture and storage, and a similar story where you've been in hearings in I think it was Iowa to stop Coal Power Plants.

James Hansen: Yes.

Matthew Wright: We've got some proposals here unfortunately that don't involve carbon capture and storage there's an HRL energy project in Victoria, and in NSW Michael Costa is pretty bullish on building a new coal fired power station. He sees no other option for them. What do you say to these politicians who are really pushing this line?

James Hansen: Well, I think that it's going to become very clear, I would say within a decade or so, that these coal plants are simply not compatible with keeping a planet resembling the one in which civilisation developed. And I think there is going to be eventually pressure to in effect bulldoze those plants, so economically they just don't make sense. You are not going to be able to leave them there 50 years. It will become clear long before 50 years that we have to get rid of those, so it doesn't make sense.

Matthew Wright: In terms of what we've heard from you and others, generally we've been pushing the line that we need to, as soon as possible, get all our emissions down to near zero emissions, so that could be a time frame of say 2020; halving our emissions in the next 3 years locally here in Victoria and then concurrently developing, you
talked about soils, the agri-char process to draw down atmospheric carbon. Will we require things like seeding the atmosphere with sulphates in order to reflectlight away from the Arctic ice or will that be sufficient, just the agri-char concurrently developed while getting our emissions down near zero?

James Hansen: My comment on that would be, we don't know, you know we're pushing the atmospheric composition beyond the level which will give us a stable climate, so we're overshooting the acceptable level. And we don't know how long we can stay in a state where we've overshot that level. Obviously, if you overshoot for one day, that's not going to cause a problem. It's a question of how many years can you leave it at a level which is going to cause long term unacceptable impacts, like instability of the ice sheets.

We just don't have a good way to make an accurate assessment. That's because there has been no prior examples in the earth's history where greenhouse gases have increased this rapidly. There have been fast changes when negative forcings, when asteroids hit the planet or when large volcano's go off, but we don't have any examples of large positive warming forcings. So it's really a hard question to answer, but I think that sensible actions, phasing out coal use where we don't capture the CO2, and reducing non CO2 forcings may be able to get us back on a track without unnatural geo-engineering type actions. But that's my guess, I don't really have a good way to quantify that.

Philip Sutton: Yes, I think that question about the speed of bringing the system back into a safe sort of configuration is a really key question because when we looked at the recommendations from the Garnaut review, or the interim recommendations, that came out yesterday. It was very clear that they understood that things were much more serious than perhaps the IPCC consensus view had indicated but when you read the recommendations, it seemed like they felt we had a reasonable amount of time to get things under control. Is there any work being done through the scientific community to try and get a handle on that question of how rapidly we'd need to get things back to a safe configuration.

James Hansen: That's the key question, but it's a very hard one because the systems in question are non-linear. Inherently it's very difficult to predict a point of collapse. Whether you're talking about an ice sheet collapsing or whether you're talking about an ecosystem collapsing because as some species go extinct, that effects others because they're all connected. So it's just inherently a very difficult non-linear problem, and the models are just not up-to snuff as far as giving us the numbers for that. We can't simulate the responses that are occurring right now in Greenland and West Antarctica.

Philip Sutton: Do you think its worth, I mean when I look at the issue I tend to focus a fair bit on the arctic ice and then try to work out, I mean it seems to be the most significant big flip that we've had so far, that is very clearly under way?

James Hansen: Ok, that one is a little, a little easier, and it's partly because we can see what is happening empirically and because it is a reversible phenomenon. It's one where I would argue you can base your estimates on the planet's energy balance and we're not measuring that as well as we should. It requires good measurements of ocean temperatures throughout the whole ocean, including the deep ocean and the high latitudes. It is easier than problems like the ice sheets.

Philip Sutton: Right, do you think we can have a safe climate without having the Arctic ice restoration. In other words is that actually an essential??

James Hansen: You know that's a good question and it's probably not, because I can't imagine that in the long run Greenland would be stable if the Arctic is ice free in the warm season. I think we do need to plan on restoring sea ice in the Arctic, preventing a complete loss of sea ice there if we want to assure that our shore lines are going to stay where they are now.

Philip Sutton: Yes, it does seem me that because that was a much more visible and obvious and estimable problem that if in fact it turned out to be one of the critical links then even if we don't know the answer on a number of other parts of the puzzle that that may give us sufficient sort of policy guide in the short term to drive a lot of public policy, then of course as we get better modelling we can refine it in relation to other issues.

James Hansen: Yes I think that's a very sensible way to look at it.

Matthew Wright: On the solutions side, you said that if clean coal came with carbon capture and storage (CCS) - but we've actually got Australian scientists in the United States right who've got a lot of venture capital behind them 50, 100 million dollars, like Dr David Mills from Ausra. His technology uses Fresnel flat plate collectors to mimic
those Mojave desert concentrating solar thermal plants. Wouldn't it be better for us to invest in that basically demonstrated commercial technology rather than keep pursuing coal carbon capture and storage, given that CCS with coal tends to be advocated not as a retrofit option?

James Hansen: Well, I think we have to do both of those and a number of another things. The problem is I don't think there is one silver bullet that is going to solve this problem. We've been putting far too little into research and development to find technological ways of addressing this.

Concentrated solar looks extremely promising but I wouldn't say that's going to solve all the problems so I think we should look at as many things as possible. And of course we would encourage that if we would have a carbon price. It would bring out innovation - some things that we can't even think of so we need to encourage technological innovation.

Philip Sutton: That's definitely one of the strong recommendations from the Garnaut review and the Australian government has indicated that it will in fact move quite strongly on the carbon cap and then generating a price from that.

James Hansen: I think that would be helpful.

Matthew Wright: Is there anything you can say to those people, I think the remaining big excuse that's being kicked around is that you've got your developing countries, you've heard it a million times and they're not doing anything so why should we. How do you frame the response around that? How do we put it to those people we're endangering ourselves here?

James Hansen: Well, they aren't going to do anything until we do, and they're not going to have the mechanisms for fixing the problem if we don't develop them. You know, we've caused the problem and we're going to have to help take the lead in developing the solutions and we don't have any time to waste arguing about whether developing countries will come along, I'm sure they will, we can't ask them to take the lead. We certainly have to do that.

Matthew Wright: So if we are looking at such dramatic cuts, the convergence is going to be clearly quite soon so we're going to have to develop these renewable energy technologies and other zero emission technologies and some people are even advocating that we'd be paying places like China to close down their older coal-fired power stations. Do you envisage that that would be the way?

James Hansen: We're going to have to help them with the technology. It's analogous to the way we solved the ozone problem, or at least that is on a direction which will solve it. We provide technology and we provided some economic assistance in adopting that technology, but China has as much to lose if not more than we do with climate change, so I'm confident that they will come along and they will be able to share the task of reducing the emissions, but we're at least going to have to provide the technological help and we should consider the technology that we develop to be for the global good and not insist that they pay special prices to the people who invented them because we're going to have to get them implemented pretty quickly.

Philip Sutton: Jim, I was just wondering going back to December last year, you gave a presentation to the American Geophysical Union Conference suggesting that the CO2 target might well be somewhere in the range of 300 parts per million to 350. What sort of reaction have you had from the scientific community and from the wider community to that proposition?

James Hansen:There has been some concern that they think this is unrealistic, and therefore they say, 'well, contrarians will use this as an argument that we shouldn't do anything because it looks like its too difficult'. Frankly, I don't agree with that. I think an initial target of 350 is doable provided we phase out coal, and although that sounds
like a real tough job, in fact it's doable and if we don't do it there is no question, if you look at the times in the earth's history when there was that much CO2 in the atmosphere it was a completely different planet. We have to do it and it is doable, if you compare the difficulty of replacing coal-fired power with something else which could include coal provided it has CO2 capture. Well that's not that difficult, I mean if we compare it to how much effort we put into World War II, it's a doable job and the incentives are just as great as they were then. So I'm a little surprised that some scientists are saying we have to make the target something that is doable. I think we have to make the target whatever is needed.

Philip Sutton: My sense is that the scientific community, certainly the Australian community which I make some effort to keep in touch with, has been encouraged if you like to be much more focused on the science, from the very fact that you've been prepared to speak out like that. So I think that one shouldn't underestimate the long term effect on peoples' perception of the issue through taking what was at the time obviously a very courageous position. You know the feedback we're getting is a lot of people are now seeing that they can actually, if you like, put more emphasis on the science because you've done that yourself.

James Hansen: Well I'm glad to hear that.

Matthew Wright: Thank you very much Dr Hansen, we appreciate you joining us on the Beyond Zero show and hopefully we can speak to you again later in the year.

James Hansen: Ok great, it was my pleasure, thanks a lot.

Matthew Wright: You're on the Beyond Zero show with Philip Sutton from the Greenleap Strategic Institute, Scott Bilby campaigner with BZE and Miwa Tominaga - over to you Scott.

SB: We've just been speaking with James Hansen director of the Goddard Institute of Space Studies at NASA and you're listening to Beyond Zero and it's put on by Climate Change awareness group called Beyond Zero Emissions. If you want to find out more about Beyond Zero Emissions go to www.beyondzeroemissions.org The time now is 8:58, and if you'd like to get a copy of Code Red, a document released recently by Philip Sutton and David Spratt can you tell us what the URL for that is?

PS: OK it's downloadable from, http://climatecodered.net/

Matthew Wright: Thank you Philip our special guest this morning from the Greenleap Strategic Institute